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Two days after Bitcoin fell below $20,000, PlanB plots his original 2019 stock-to-flow model beside a new fit and writes that the model "certainly had a good run" from March 2019 to March 2022.
PlanB answers critics: the stock-to-flow model has stayed within its one-standard-deviation band for three years, and the price sits at the band's low end, as in March 2019.
Replying to himself 18 seconds later, PlanB sets a new test: whether Bitcoin, then at $51K, stays within the model's one-standard-deviation band, roughly $50K to $200K, for two and a half years.
On December 24, 2021, PlanB rewrote the test for his stock-to-flow model. The original formulas and dates behind the power law, stock-to-flow and the rainbow chart, measured against the price.
PlanB declares his floor model failed, recalls saying that Bitcoin under $100K in December 2021 would mean stock-to-flow was "dead," and withdraws that test.
Five days before the November close, PlanB expects the $98K figure to miss, calls it the "floor model," and says the stock-to-flow model is unaffected and still on track toward $100K.
With Bitcoin below $34,000, PlanB posts monthly floors for the rest of 2021, from above $47K in August to above $135K in December, on a chart titled "Bitcoin S2F Model - Worst Case Scenario 2021."
Trolololo opens a BitcoinTalk thread fitting a logarithmic curve to Bitcoin's price. He later rewrote the opening post; the 2014 chart and formula survive in the thread's fourth post.
Bitcoin's first price was a production-cost estimate. Satoshi predicted in 2010 that market price would come to dictate production cost — not the reverse. The arc from 2009 to modern models.