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Satoshi outlines the economic model of Bitcoin, explaining that rational market prices reflect expected future value, and compares production cost dynamics to commodity pricing.
Bitcoin's first price was a production-cost estimate. Satoshi predicted in 2010 that market price would come to dictate production cost — not the reverse. The arc from 2009 to modern models.
NewLibertyStandard publishes the first exchange rate for Bitcoin: $1 = 1,309.03 BTC ($0.000764 per BTC), calculated from the electricity cost of mining — a rudimentary but historic first valuation.
Four exchanges opened between October 2009 and July 2010, none of them Satoshi's: NewLibertyStandard, Malmi's bitcoinexchange.com, Bitcoin Market and Mt. Gox. Satoshi advised from the sidelines.
Malmi proposes a Bitcoin-to-euro exchange service. Satoshi answers with a fixed support-price idea and says he will not run an exchange himself; Malmi's own bitcoinexchange.com followed in 2010.
Hal Finney congratulates Satoshi on the first alpha and his famous thought experiment: if Bitcoin becomes the dominant payment system, each coin would be ~$10M — early mining a 100M-to-1 payoff bet.