Quote from: chriswilmer on October 23, 2014, 12:14:23 AM
What price do you get in 2075? In my opinion the “equilibrium” price of Bitcoin is one of the easier numbers to make rational arguments about (thermodynamics is always on sounder footing than kinetics, etc.). For example, if you get $1 trillion per BTC in 2075, I would say the model is problematic, however well fitted. If you get something in the $1-10 million range, then you’re probably in the ballpark. (these models assume a certain optimism about adoption already)
By year 2075 I will be dead.
The curve will always grow, but slowlier and slowlier as time goes by. Just like the Bitcoin emission curve. This logarithmic regression is way better than the linear regression. But it’s just a model, not a crystal ball.
The curve will flatten or steepen depending on the future price fluctuations, but not much. I will recalculate the regression from time to time. Maybe monthly, or once every three or four months.
I made the chart for myself, and I later thought that it would be worth sharing it with you all.