Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value

Chart with data until 2014-10-14:

Log-scale chart dated 14-10-2014, v1.1: Bitcoin's daily weighted price in green from 2010 to 2014 under a red curve labeled "Logarithmic (non linear) Regression, R² = 0.9886, y = 2.9065Ln(x) - 19.493," with dated markers where the curve reaches $1 (06-04-2011), $10, $100, $1,000 (24-04-2015), $10,000 (22-11-2017) and $100,000 (16-07-2021), and a donation QR code

Donations: 19AYtA4xFM7izR7BAXKr9TLJkrAJsvcfFm

If we “flatten” the red logarithmic line, we get the spread between the price and the estimated value:

Chart titled "Spread": the percentage gap between price and the regression line from 2010 to 2014, peaking at +1678% in 2011 and +506% in 2013 and ending at -42%

Donations: 1BgnScfDU5QvKUGCqKKsDm62YxKzh5sjCn

This is how the 2011 and 2013 (1) bubbles look like in linear price axis:

Linear-scale chart of the daily weighted price from 2010 to early 2013 with the red regression curve, showing the 2011 and first 2013 spikes above the curve

Donations: 1EbbkBkTDZ667bUxHNHtxhAysFEAWVgWB4

And this is how the 2011 and 2013 (1&2) bubbles look like in linear price axis:

Linear-scale chart of the daily weighted price from 2010 to 2014 with the red regression curve, showing the late-2013 spike above $1,100 and the price falling back near the curve in 2014

Donations: 196xJM7c4jjhHkUp7CnrKG2joXPe57uNRF

Calculate today’s trendline price HERE (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E%282.9065++*+ln%28%28number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09%29%2Fdays%29+-+19.493%29)

Projected:

     1.000  24-04-2015
    10.000  22-11-2017
   100.000  16-07-2021
 1.000.000  06-09-2026

Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value

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